National Weather Service

000 ABNT20 KNHC 052344 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Eastern Caribbean Sea: An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent waters. While surface observations do suggest broad rotation and pressures are lower than 24 hours ago, there currently is no definitive proof that a well-defined circulation exists. While land interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder significant development during the next day or so, environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for development as the system moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the system enters the south-central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Key messages for the disturbance over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052036 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 Deep convection had been stripped away well to the northeast of the depression's low-level center for much of the morning. Just recently, there has been a small burst of convection occurring nearer to the center. The Dvorak intensity estimates have changed little from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial advisory remains 30 kt. Persistent, strong southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment should cause the depression to struggle to maintain organized deep convection, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday. Based on some of the global model pressure fields, it is possible that the surface low may become ill-defined by Thursday as well, if not shortly thereafter. There was no change to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one. After wobbling westward for a few hours this morning, the depression has resumed a west-northwestward motion, or 300/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days as it remains to the south-southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.3N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 18.2N 35.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.0N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 20:36:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Oct 2022 21:23:20 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 052035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122022 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122022 500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 32.4W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 32.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto