National Weather Service

000ABNT20 KNHC 270526TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located well to the west-southwest of the Azores.Central Subtropical Atlantic:A surface trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda is currently producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become favorable for gradual development of this system as it moves northward this weekend and then turns eastward by the early to middle portion of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Hagen

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Sep 2026 03:22:52 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 Although convection around Fay continues to pulsate, the storm's overall structure has degraded. Vertical wind shear has displaced the convection to the south of the fully exposed low-level center. The latest objective Dvorak analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates Fay's intensity between 30 and 35 kt. With the latest ASCAT pass only clipping the storm's western flank, the initial intensity was held steady at 30 kt, mostly to compensate for brief periods of intensification under these convective pulses. Forward speed has slowed to a crawl, with the initial motion set at 190/2 kt. Steering flow is very weak as Fay remains embedded within the southern flank of the Atlantic subtropical high. Track models continue to converge towards a solution, depicting Fay turning southwest and then westward heading into early next week as it is picked up by the prevailing easterlies. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the previous advisory, reflecting only a slight eastward shift to blend better with HCCA guidance. Fay's fate will depend on just how long this latest round of nocturnal convection will last. Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggest that these convective pulses may continue into early next week. However, it is possible that Fay could become post-tropical sooner than currently forecast. The latest intensity forecast was essentially unchanged, depicting a relatively steady system on the verge of becoming post-tropical as vertical wind shear continues to inhibit Fay's chances of convective redevelopment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 29.6N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 29.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 28.4N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 27.4N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 24.6N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 24.0N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026 096 FONT11 KNHC 270235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026 0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026 ...FAY VERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 43.9W ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 43.9 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the southwest is expected starting early next week, along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen