National Weather Service

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 08:56:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2025 08:56:29 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100855 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 Jerry is still a disorganized tropical storm. The cloud pattern remains sheared, with deep convection displaced to the south and east of the low-level center. Earlier aircraft fixes and recent satellite images suggest the center could be becoming elongated, and dropsonde data indicated the central pressure was gradually rising during the previous mission. The storm has not become any better organized since that time, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of the earlier aircraft wind data and more recent satellite intensity estimates. Although the center of Jerry is passing north of the Leeward Islands, radar data show that heavy rainfall continues across much of the region, leading to an increased threat of flash flooding. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Jerry. The storm is moving toward the northwest (315/15 kt), but a northward turn is expected by tonight as Jerry moves along the western extent of a subtropical ridge and pulls away from the islands. This northward motion should continue through the weekend, keeping the center of Jerry well to the southeast of Bermuda on Sunday. The latest track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this part of the forecast, and little change was made to the NHC prediction, which lies near HCCA and the Google DeepMind mean. By early next week, Jerry is forecast to turn northeastward and eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. This part of the track forecast is more uncertain, as greater spread is noted in the models regarding how quickly Jerry becomes captured within this flow. During this period, the updated NHC forecast is slower and slightly south of the previous one, following the latest multi-model consensus trends. Jerry has been unable to develop a more coherent structure over the past couple of days within a moderate to strong northwesterly shear environment. Given its current appearance and the continued shear, little strengthening is expected in the near term. In fact, the latest intensity guidance has trended downward, and some models suggest Jerry may not strengthen at all going forward. Since there are indications in the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS that the shear could lessen a bit over the weekend, the updated NHC forecast shows some modest strengthening, but Jerry is no longer predicted to become a hurricane. This forecast still lies on the high end of the guidance, so future downward adjustments could be necessary if Jerry continues to struggle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, could still affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. These conditions are expected to subside later today as Jerry moves away from the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 19.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.9N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 23.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.9N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 30.5N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.6N 60.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 31.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 31.5N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 100853 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 0900 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES AS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JERRY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of Jerry was located near 19.2, -62.5 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100852 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES AS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM JERRY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 62.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla, as well as the Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next several hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next several hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 62.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight into Saturday, followed by a northward to north-northeastward motion through the rest of the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue passing to the north of the Leeward Islands this morning, then move away from the islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm total rainfall graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart