National Weather Service

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Aug 2025 02:51:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Aug 2025 03:21:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 525 WTNT45 KNHC 150250 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 Erin has intensified tonight. The first NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission into the storm found that the center was a little more embedded in the deep convection than earlier with a compact wind field particularly strong on the eastern flank. Tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicated the center is starting to become better aligned, though some residual southward tilt with height still exists, which can also be seen on a 2339 UTC GMI microwave pass. In the most recent leg, peak 700-mb flight level winds from the NOAA aircraft were 69 kt in the northeast quadrant. This value reduces to surface wind near 60 kt, just shy of hurricane intensity. Erin is now starting to move west-northwestward at 285/15 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge stretched from off the eastern United States coast all the way to the eastern Atlantic remains in place helping to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for at least the next 2 to 3 days with it gradually slowing down. During this time-span, a mid-latitude trough moving into the northwestern Atlantic is expected to dig equatorward to the northeast of Bermuda, with another reinforcing shortwave moving into Atlantic Canada towards the end of the forecast period. These features should create a weakness in the subtropical ridge that Erin is expected to turn northwestward and north-northwestward into. The latest track guidance was quite similar to the prior cycle, just a little faster than before towards the end of the forecast period, and only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast track. This track roughly splits the latest forecast from the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) and HCCA consensus aid. Still, there is a healthy amount of spread in the guidance and uncertainty remains about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. With Erin's core structure improving this evening, the storm appears poised to intensify more quickly in the short term. Rapid intensification probabilities have increased in SHIPS guidance, with now a 38-40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24 h. The environment continues to become more thermodynamically favorable, with Erin crossing into 28C and warmer sea-surface temperatures, and mid-level moisture increasing over the forecast time period. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast will show more intensification over the next 48-60 hours, and Erin is now forecast to become a major hurricane earlier and peak at 115 kt, category 4 intensity. After that time, there remains evidence in both SHIPS guidance and model fields that northwesterly vertical wind shear could increase over the system. In addition, there is a good chance Erin may begin to undergo inner-core structural changes, like eyewall replacement cycles, that could broaden its wind field but also cause its intensity to plateau. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast now shows some gradual weakening after a peak intensity in 72 h, though the models show the wind radii expanding quite dramatically in the day 3-5 period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the guidance, especially in the short-term, but ends up near the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN towards the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Tropical storm conditions could also occur in portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend, and additional watches may be required tonight or on Friday. 3. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.1N 52.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.6N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 22.4N 67.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 25.0N 69.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 28.0N 70.4W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 150249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 1(18) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 10(25) X(25) 1(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 3(18) X(18) 1(19) SABA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 450 WTNT35 KNHC 150247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 ...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 52.7W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Anguilla and Barbuda * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 52.7 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is expected to become a hurricane tonight and could become a major hurricane by this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the eastern United States coast by next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 14 the center of Erin was located near 17.1, -52.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.