National Weather Service

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2025 08:49:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2025 09:21:48 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 310910 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 40...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 Corrected time of next advisory issuance ...MELISSA MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 64.0W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 41 MPH...67 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. After Melissa becomes post-tropical, a brief period of heavy rain and gusty winds is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. For more information on impacts in Canada, see the Canadian Hurricane Center website at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 64.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 41 mph (67 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue into Saturday, followed by a gradual slowdown and turn toward the east-northeast later this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is expected to become a strong post-tropical cyclone later today, with gradual weakening forecast over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Gusty winds over Bermuda will gradually subside this morning. Gusty winds are possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. RAINFALL: A brief period of heavy rain is possible over the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland tonight. STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside this morning for Bermuda. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada today and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...MELISSA MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 31 the center of Melissa was located near 35.9, -64.0 with movement NE at 41 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 310909 CCA TCMAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025 CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY ISSUANCE HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.0W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 36 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 140SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT.......170NE 230SE 180SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 450SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 64.0W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 65.6W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 30NW. 34 KT...210NE 290SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 80SW 20NW. 34 KT...210NE 320SE 260SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 330SE 260SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 300SE 240SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 270SE 210SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 310847 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM AST Fri Oct 31 2025 Recent satellite images show Melissa is quickly losing tropical characteristics. The estimated low-level center is displaced well to the west of the weakening convection associated with the system. Decreasing satellite intensity estimates and the latest global model wind fields support lowering the intensity to 80 kt this morning. Earlier ASCAT data showed an expanding wind field in the southern semicircle of Melissa, with 50-kt winds that extended up to 140 n mi from the center in the southeastern quadrant. Large swells from Melissa are spreading over much of the western Atlantic, resulting in hazardous marine conditions in this region. Melissa remains in a highly-sheared environment and will move over rapidly cooling SSTs while completing extratropical transition today. Based on current satellite trends and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, the updated NHC forecast now shows Melissa becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone in 12 h, though this could occur as soon as later this morning. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, but Melissa will remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it moves over the North Atlantic through early next week. Melissa is racing northeastward (040/36 kt) away from Bermuda and is expected to continue this general motion for the next day or two within the flow ahead of an upper-level trough. The tightly clustered track guidance agrees that the center of post-tropical Melissa will pass near, but to the south of, the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland late tonight, bringing the potential for some gusty winds and heavy rain. Later this weekend, Melissa is forecast to turn east-northeastward while interacting with a higher-latitude, upper-level low over the North Atlantic. The latest NHC track prediction remains very similar to the previous forecast, generally following a blend of the HCCA and GDMI aids. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Gusty winds over Bermuda are expected to gradually subside this morning. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. The flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another day or two. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 35.9N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 40.4N 58.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0600Z 46.4N 51.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 54.1N 39.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1800Z 55.6N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 56.8N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z 60.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart