National Weather Service

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 022040 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 70.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 70.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 69.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 70.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 ...EYE OF BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 70.8W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize, should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings will be required tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn more toward the west Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica on Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica and southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 10 inches across Barahona Peninsula in southwest Dominican Republic. Isolated totals of 6 inches or more are also anticipated across the mountainous terrain in the central Dominican Republic. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is also expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands Wednesday into Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Swells will impact the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through midweek. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 the center of Beryl was located near 15.9, -70.8 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022041 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear. Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft missions near 00Z. The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion. This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty. The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches will likely be required later today or tonight. 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2024 20:42:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2024 21:22:53 GMT